Use structured foresight to explore plausible policy futures. Separate forecasting from scenario building and test the robustness of decisions.

Learning outcomes

  • Identify defensible drivers and uncertainties.
  • Develop contrasting plausible scenarios.
  • Evaluate a policy option across more than one scenario.

Main topics

  • Drivers of change
  • Scenario construction
  • Assumptions and uncertainty
  • Policy stress testing

Practical task

Build three non-operational regional policy scenarios and stress-test a civilian cooperation proposal.

Assessment

Scenario portfolio and a facilitated workshop report.